Vancouver Price Drop

Documenting Vancouver real estate price movements

Lowered Expectations – June 30, 2012

You won’t believe this but Global TV got their facts wrong in a “news” segment about real estate.  Before consulting “experts” who said there was nothing to worry about they highlighted the sad state of affairs our real estate market is currently in.  Among the points was that 20% of sellers have reduced their asking price!  If you haven’t been following this blog then that seems very high but it is wrong.  The number is actually 38% because Global’s numbers did not include the rampant practice of delisting and then relisting with a lower price.  Additionally, if you exclude very recent listings then these numbers will of course grow even higher.

Here are some highlights:

Region Listings Dropped Dropped %
Ladner 151 76 50.3%
Tsawwassen 208 103 49.5%
North Vancouver 1095 466 42.6%
Chilliwack 162 68 42.0%
Vancouver West 3740 1566 41.9%
New Westminster 650 271 41.7%
White Rock 1557 645 41.4%
Port Moody 406 165 40.6%
Richmond 2777 1104 39.8%
Burnaby 2027 805 39.7%
Cloverdale 671 266 39.6%
Coquitlam 1137 443 39.0%
Langley 1530 597 39.0%
Maple Ridge 1117 432 38.7%
Vancouver East 1426 535 37.5%
Abbotsford 1525 567 37.2%
North Delta 285 106 37.2%
Port Coquitlam 466 168 36.1%
Pitt Meadows 192 67 34.9%
Mission 765 263 34.4%
Surrey 1693 575 34.0%
West Vancouver 725 241 33.2%
North Surrey 1159 376 32.4%
Hope and Region 177 54 30.5%
Kent 193 58 30.1%
Sunshine Coast 1284 354 27.6%
Squamish 483 131 27.1%
Whistler Pemberton 874 206 23.6%

Here are some interesting results from individual spots within the regions:

Area Region Listings Dropped Dropped %
Eagleridge West Vancouver 10 8 80.0%
Westlynn North Vancouver 13 10 76.9%
Upper Delbrook North Vancouver 18 12 66.7%
Queen’s Park New Westminster 20 13 65.0%
Pemberton Heights North Vancouver 14 9 64.3%
College Park Port Moody 27 17 63.0%
Beach Grove Tsawwassen 31 19 61.3%
Queens West Vancouver 23 14 60.9%
Hawthorne Ladner 45 27 60.0%
Murrayville Langley 80 48 60.0%
Upper Eagle Ridge Coquitlam 15 9 60.0%
Woodland Acres Port Coquitlam 10 6 60.0%
Cliff Drive Tsawwassen 49 29 59.2%
Cariboo Burnaby 39 23 59.0%
Delta Manor Ladner 24 14 58.3%
Boundary Beach Tsawwassen 19 11 57.9%
S.W. Marine Vancouver West 38 22 57.9%
Ladner Elementary Ladner 21 12 57.1%
Dollarton North Vancouver 14 8 57.1%
Indian River North Vancouver 14 8 57.1%
Forest Hills Burnaby 25 14 56.0%
Kitsilano Vancouver West 327 183 56.0%
Hamilton Richmond 54 30 55.6%
Riverdale Richmond 121 67 55.4%
Westridge Burnaby 20 11 55.0%

14 responses to “Lowered Expectations – June 30, 2012

  1. gary June 30, 2012 at 7:00 pm

    thanks for all your hard work

  2. Ross June 30, 2012 at 7:06 pm

    Has anybody sent this data to Global? Might be controversial enough for them to want to do a follo up…

    • an observer June 30, 2012 at 8:05 pm

      They’re much more interested in ensuring their largest advertising $ contributor is happy than worrying about things like facts!

      • Groundhog July 1, 2012 at 9:48 am

        I doubt it would change how they report, but I’d like to see someone point this out to them and see what the response is. Maybe if I get some time I’ll write an email and will post if I get a response. Probably won’t be able to do this for a few days so if anyone else wants to go ahead.

  3. jr June 30, 2012 at 8:38 pm

    I’m not sure there is a way to figure this out, but I’m wondering how many drops are due to the original asking price being absurdly priced over market rates (like 25% increase from when it was bought 6 months ago) and how many are priced accordingly but drop because the market is dropping (below previous purchase price or for similar home in same area). I think this is an important distinction because it’s my belief a lot of people are pricing to fulfill their “your richer then you think” belief. So to say the market is dropping, yes it is, but from what? 20% from reality or 50% from delusion. Hope that make sense.

    • an observer June 30, 2012 at 9:00 pm

      Yeah, unfortunately not really doable. I think that most people (unless they have a specific strategy in mind to bring multiple offers or at least extra interest) choose an initial price that they would be very happy with and probably have 5-10% wiggle room below that price. Once you have people dropping things 20% you know they are not at all happy regardless as to how out to lunch the original price was.

      Looking at the open house and frequency of price changes is a good measure of how urgently someone wants to sell at least as a general statement. Someone who lists their home for $2 million in March and it is still sitting there at $2 million has a much different mindset than someone who lists at $2.3 million and knocks it down to $2 million over this time with 3 or 4 price drops and weekly open houses. The former is more likely to be testing the waters while the latter seems to need to sell his property fairly urgently.

      • jr June 30, 2012 at 9:21 pm

        Great points. So the big question as far as severity in downside risk here is how many have to sell and how many are selling to try and cash out.

        It will be interesting to find out in the aftermath how over-leveraged people were. Flipping houses was pretty big in the states before the crash there, especially in cities like Seattle that had a lot of old residences in expensive neighborhoods. People were able to buy homes simply because they already owned a home, and then used that for collateral for the next one, on and on and on. The banks just made their money, sold their bad bundles of mortgages, and moved on. We all know the story. I think the banks here have probably been much more diligent in that regard, but it doesn’t stop someone from HELOCing all their equity from their principle residence to buy multiple investment properties. Likely a different means to the same outcome.

      • Ross July 1, 2012 at 10:53 am

        Seems like a measure of the % gap (+ or -) between list price and assessed value might help here. We know things are really going south when a decent percentage of list prices are below assessed value.

  4. LS in Arbutus July 1, 2012 at 8:24 am

    Where I live, in Arbutus, there are a ton of listings on the market. There are currently at 70 SFH listings. At the end of last summer it was approx 40 listings.

    Very few new builds are selling.

    Many list for what they think they would have got at the top of the market. 42 foot * 122 foot lot with a dumpy Vancouver special on it, $2.1 million originally, now only $2.0 million.

    It’s really no wonder the market is imploding.

    • an observer July 3, 2012 at 9:38 am

      In a lot of prime areas the only things selling over the last 6 months have been “tear downs”. The builders are in for a huge wakeup call and I believe a lot of builders are going to be wiped out in the next 6 to 9 months or so.

  5. July 4, 2012 at 11:04 am

    Your data would be much more credible if you provided references.

    • an observer July 4, 2012 at 11:48 am

      As far as the drop listings you can search the old price along with the mls number in google and it will likely come up in a cached link. Obviously I can’t provide references for this chart because this data does not exist in a nice and neat format and unless you have access to properties and historical listing prices and do the work yourself you won’t be able to confirm it – a realtor with a lot of free time could easily confirm it but it wouldn’t make sense for them to do so.

      I’ll take one of the areas, like say Eagle Ridge with 80% of properties dropped in price, and list out the 10 active properties along with their initial and current prices. That doesn’t of course validate everything but it should show that the data is not being fabricated. Otherwise you’ll just need to take my word that the data is as accurate as possible and this coming from someone has very little to gain or lose from property prices increasing or decreasing.

  6. Pingback: Lowered Expectations For Eagle Ridge – July 4, 2012 « Vancouver Price Drop

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