Vancouver Price Drop

Documenting Vancouver real estate price movements

Desperation Meter – August 2, 2012

The Desperation Meter is a formula I’ve come up with that determines a desperation score by weighting events like price drops, relisting under a new MLS and open houses and re-weighting them by how recent the event occurred.  The current formula looks like this:

  1. One 1 to 2% price drop = 3
  2. One 3 to 5% price drop = 4
  3. One 6 to 8% price drop = 5
  4. One 9 to 12% price drop = 6
  5. One 13+% price drop = 7
  6. New MLS number (not including the first one) = 3
  7. Open house = 1 (and a maximum of 8 date adjusted points can go into this category)

The event is then multiplied by how recent it occurred

  1. Within 30 days = 1.6x
  2. Within 60 days = 1.2x
  3. Within 120 days = 1x
  4. Older than 120 days = 0.5x

The concept is pretty straight forward.  People who are frequently dropping the price, relisting under new numbers (either due to expiration, wanting to potentially hide previous history or bring the property back into attention) and constant open houses probably indicate that the owners need to or at least are extremely anxious to sell.

I have redone the top 10 because I found a big bug that treated every price drop as 4 points.  I also changed the % drop points a little and separated 1-5% into 1-2 and 3-5.  A lot of the same homes here but a few dropped out and were replaced with more deserving entries

#1 ) Address:5225 CANADA WY, Deer Lake, Burnaby

March 19 V937888 $1,358,000 $0 0%
March 28 V937888 removed
April 09 V942093 $1,249,000 $-109,000 -8%
April 19 V942093 removed
April 26 V945673 $1,248,000 $-110,000 -8%
June 01 V945673 removed
June 04 V954366 $1,238,888 $-119,112 -9%
Open House: Jun 10
Open House: Jun 23
June 21 V954366 $1,199,888 $-158,112 -12%
June 27 V954366 removed
July 06 V960351 $999,000 $-359,000 -26%
Open House: Jul 07
Open House: Jul 08
July 12 V960351 removed
July 18 V962463 $1,188,000 $-170,000 -13%

Assessment: $1,123,000

Desperation Score: 53.4

DEER LAKE! Renovated 4560 sqft home on large 80×119 lot. Upgrades include: carpet, tiles, new stainless appliances, paint, hot water tank, & much more. 2 separate suites downstairs. Hedging in front provides sound barrier and inside of house is quiet. Walking distance to Buckingham Elementary, Burnaby Central Secondary, and Deer Lake. 5 min drive to Metrotown, 30 mins to downtown, 35 mins to airport. (Access to house is by the backlane, off of Rugby St). Close to Burnaby Winter Club, 8 Rinks, C.G. Brown Pool, Heritage Village, Shadbolt Centre, Burnaby Lake

#2 ) Address:340 SOUTHBOROUGH DR, British Properties, West Vancouver

March 09 V919542 $4,088,000 $0 0%
April 03 V919542 $3,698,000 $-390,000 -10%
May 10 V919542 removed
May 19 V951089 $3,695,000 $-393,000 -10%
Open House: May 24
Open House: May 27
Open House: May 31
Open House: Jun 03
Open House: Jun 10
June 13 V951089 $3,495,000 $-593,000 -15%
Open House: Jun 17
Open House: Jun 14
Open House: Jun 24
July 05 V951089 $3,295,000 $-793,000 -19%
Open House: Jul 08
Open House: Jul 12
Open House: Jul 15
Open House: Jul 14
July 17 V951089 removed
July 20 V962823 $3,295,000 $-793,000 -19%
Open House: Jul 22

Assessment: $2,292,000

Desperation Score: 43.8

Gorgeous Hollingsworth Home on a 21,000 sq ft private property overlooking Capilano Golf & Country Club. Thoughtful open plan ideal for entertaining featuring a wall of sliding doors connecting the interior with patios, decks, & mature landscaping beside the 17th Green & 18th Tee of Canada’s finest Golf Club! The energy, beauty, & quality of this British Properties estate must be seen to be truly appreciated. Fabulous modern finishing masterfully designed for all principle rooms to face the golf course/gardens & flood with natural light throughout the day. Downsize without compromise or customize, add square footage, & create your dream family home. Here is your opportunity to own a renowned Russel Hollingsworth Home in an irreplaceable setting. Call for your private showing.

#3 ) Address:1607 W 64TH AV, South Granville, Vancouver West

March 10 V936292 $1,688,000 $0 0%
March 22 V936292 $1,588,000 $-100,000 -6%
April 19 V936292 $1,528,000 $-160,000 -9%
May 17 V936292 $1,479,000 $-209,000 -12%
Open House: May 20
Open House: May 27
Open House: Jun 03
June 07 V936292 $1,398,000 $-290,000 -17%
Open House: Jun 10
June 11 V936292 removed
June 14 V956474 $1,398,000 $-290,000 -17%
Open House: Jun 17
Open House: Jun 24
Open House: Jul 01
July 12 V956474 $1,298,000 $-390,000 -23%

Assessment: $1,107,600

Desperation Score: 41.9

BEST PRICE EVER!!! Beautifully renovated to consider the modern family. This designer contemporary home features 5 beds, 3 baths & new gourmet kitchen with Bosch appliances and quartz countertops. Solid oak hardwood throughout main floor. 2 marble fireplaces, all new plumbing and electrical. Located in a wonderful family neighbourhood. Close to McKechnie Elementary and Magee High School. Note: possible 2 bedroom suite with roughed in kitchen & laundry.

#4 ) Address:# 203 8451 WESTMINSTER HY, Brighouse, Richmond

March 09 V929415 $267,500 $0 0%
March 21 V929415 $265,800 $-1,700 -1%
March 28 V929415 $265,500 $-2,000 -1%
April 11 V929415 removed
April 14 V943170 $262,000 $-5,500 -2%
April 24 V943170 $258,000 $-9,500 -4%
Open House: May 20
June 07 V943170 $255,000 $-12,500 -5%
June 12 V943170 removed
June 15 V956432 $250,000 $-17,500 -7%
June 30 V956432 $249,800 $-17,700 -7%
July 11 V956432 $248,800 $-18,700 -7%
July 26 V956432 $248,500 $-19,000 -7%
July 31 V956432 $248,000 $-19,500 -7%

Assessment: $256,800

Desperation Score: 41.8

BINGO! Insuite Washer & Dryer. BEST PRICED 2BD 1.5BA condo with INSUITE LAUNDRY. GORGEOUS! Lovingly cared-for. Your Perfect First Home! Peaceful SOUTH & EAST outlook. Super QUIET. Away from traffic noise. Sparkling clean! Storage can be DEN or COMPUTER ROOM. JUMBO MASTERBDRM. JUMBO DECK. Secure Parking w/ BRAND NEW GATE. Strata fee includes Heat/Hot Water/use of Swimming Pool. Brand New Laminate Floor/New Bedroom Carpet/ New Kitchen Counter. Set between Rmd Centre & Lansdowne Mall. Step out your front door & EAT/SHOP/PLAY. Walk to Price Smart Supermarket/Zellers/Superstores/Public Market/Skytrain/Starbucks/Minoru Park/Aquatic Ctr/Kwantlen College. Click View Multimedia/Virtual Tour. Rentals OK. No rental limit. MOVE IN ANYTIME

#5 ) Address:477 VENTURA CR, Upper Delbrook, North Vancouver

May 14 V949956 $1,198,000 $0 0%
Open House: May 19
June 06 V949956 $1,098,000 $-100,000 -8%
Open House: Jun 17
Open House: Jun 24
Open House: Jul 01
June 27 V949956 $1,048,000 $-150,000 -13%
Open House: Jul 07
Open House: Jul 15
July 20 V949956 $978,000 $-220,000 -18%
Open House: Jul 22
July 25 V949956 removed
July 28 V964157 $978,000 $-220,000 -18%
Open House: Jul 28

Assessment: $1,180,000

Desperation Score: 40.8

Very tranquil setting on a quiet cul-de-sac of fine homes in ‘Upper Delbrook’. 12 year old ‘Noort’ built home. Large lot backing onto natural park/greenbelt. Features: white kitchen w/granite counters, formal dining room, light maple floors in family room, full master ensuite w/jetted tub, 400 sf west-facing sundeck, 700 sf unfinished walk-out/daylight basement (easy suite w/roughed in plumbing), Lots of accessible storage. Large double garage, newly painted exterior, deck resurfaced, etc…Great value! Priced below assessed value!

#6 ) Address:7870 2ND ST, East Burnaby, Burnaby

March 09 V927627 $685,000 $0 0%
March 13 V927627 $675,000 $-10,000 -1%
April 10 V927627 removed
April 18 V943823 $664,900 $-20,100 -3%
May 01 V943823 $649,900 $-35,100 -5%
Open House: May 26
Open House: May 27
Open House: Jun 03
June 07 V943823 removed
June 15 V956799 $639,000 $-46,000 -7%
Open House: Jun 23
Open House: Jun 24
Open House: Jun 30
July 21 V956799 $628,000 $-57,000 -8%
July 30 V956799 removed
August 02 V964735 $628,000 $-57,000 -8%

Assessment: $642,000

Desperation Score: 39.7

Beautifully well kept & the best value 1/2 duplex in Burnaby, large lot: 4,818 sq ft (33×146 ft), fenced backyard facing south, bright. This gorgeous home features 3 good size bedrooms on main floor, 2 full bathrooms up, master bedroom has 4 piece ensuite with jacuzzi, new laminated floor on living & dining room, newer paint, vaulted ceiling on living room, elegant layout you will love it. The bright basement one bedroom suite could be a mortgage helper. Excellent location! Close to one of Burnaby’s top private elementary schools & walking distance to Burnaby’s best high school – St Thomas More Collegiate. Easy access to many amenities. Best buy & must see! Open Sat (Aug 4), 2-4pm.

#7 ) Address:9165 211B ST, Walnut Grove, Langley

June 08 F1214979 $532,000 $0 0%
Open House: Jun 16
Open House: Jun 23
June 28 F1214979 removed
June 30 F1216908 $532,000 $0 0%
Open House: Jul 07
July 11 F1216908 $524,900 $-7,100 -1%
July 13 F1216908 $514,000 $-18,000 -3%
July 24 F1216908 $499,000 $-33,000 -6%
Open House: Jul 28
Open House: Jul 29
July 27 F1216908 $494,000 $-38,000 -7%
August 02 F1216908 $484,000 $-48,000 -9%

Assessment: $459,000

Desperation Score: 39.6

Desirable Country Grove home completely updated with a NEW roof, NEW countertops, NEW 50 gallon hot water tank, NEW flooring, NEW appliances, NEW ensuite, NEW fencing and NEW Double French Doors leading to your lovely NEW Deck. Fantastic location. 1 block to French Immersion School and Walnut Grove Secondary, rec center, parks and trails. Hurry before this dream home is gone! (NOTE: SF includes partially enclosed garage).

#8 ) Address:# 8 3127 SKEENA ST, Riverwood, Port Coquitlam

May 03 V947131 $484,900 $0 0%
May 17 V947131 $479,900 $-5,000 -1%
Open House: May 19
Open House: May 20
May 24 V947131 $474,900 $-10,000 -2%
June 06 V947131 $469,900 $-15,000 -3%
Open House: Jun 16
Open House: Jun 17
June 21 V947131 $465,900 $-19,000 -4%
Open House: Jun 23
Open House: Jun 24
June 30 V947131 $462,900 $-22,000 -5%
Open House: Jul 01
Open House: Jul 08
July 10 V947131 $454,900 $-30,000 -6%
Open House: Jul 21
Open House: Jul 22
July 21 V947131 $452,900 $-32,000 -7%
July 27 V947131 $449,900 $-35,000 -7%
Open House: Jul 28
Open House: Jul 29

Assessment: $445,000

Desperation Score: 39.2

Immaculate 3 level townhome with 3 good sized bedrooms & 3 1/2 bathrooms located in the ‘Rivers Walk’ Complex in the Riverwood area of Port Coquitlam. Great floor plan. This is a corner unit & has a full length driveway & a double garage. It has 9′ ceilings on the main floor, an island & laminated flooring in the kitchen area w/an adjacent exterior balcony looking out onto a large fenced backyard. There is also a family room on the main floor w/a gas fireplace. On the upper floor, the master bedroom is quite large & it comes w/a walk in closet & a 3 piece ensuite w/shower. The washer & dryer are here. The lower floor has a large rec room w/walkout to the backyard & a 4 piece bathrm. All 3 levels of home are prewired for internet! PUBLIC OPEN: Saturday & Sunday July 28&29, 1-4 PM.

#9 ) Address:1388 21ST ST, Ambleside, West Vancouver

April 25 V945353 $2,480,000 $0 0%
Open House: May 20
Open House: May 27
Open House: Jun 09
Open House: Jun 10
June 12 V945353 $2,090,000 $-390,000 -16%
Open House: Jun 17
Open House: Jun 24
Open House: Jul 01
Open House: Jul 08
Open House: Jul 15
July 11 V945353 removed
July 14 V961936 $2,090,000 $-390,000 -16%
Open House: Jul 22
Open House: Jul 29
July 31 V961936 $1,990,000 $-490,000 -20%
Open House: Aug 05

Assessment: $1,602,000

Desperation Score: 38.8

Breathtaking Westerly views and sunsets from this fabulous family home. 4 bedrooms on upper floor including enormous master en/suite. Entire house fully updated, and elegantly renovated to very high standard from top to bottom. Frontwindows on all floors face the ocean. Large lower floor also has wonderful ocean views, two double bedrooms, Spa, Rec and Media rooms with potential for easy conversion to separate suite. Ideal central location, only steps from Bus routes, Pauline Johnson, Irwin Park and West Van Secondary Schools, Kay Meek Theatre, West Van Rec centre and all the superb lifestyle Dundarave has to offer. A “MUST SEE” offering best value available. Full details on Realtors’ website.

#10 ) Address:# 223 3 RIALTO CT, Quay, New Westminster

March 09 V919764 $379,900 $0 0%
May 01 V919764 removed
May 05 V947923 $373,900 $-6,000 -2%
June 06 V947923 $353,900 $-26,000 -7%
Open House: Jun 10
July 11 V947923 $349,900 $-30,000 -8%
July 13 V947923 $339,900 $-40,000 -11%
August 01 V947923 removed
August 03 V964970 $319,900 $-60,000 -16%
Open House: Aug 06

Assessment: $344,000

Desperation Score: 38.8

Awesome price for this updated two bedroom, two bath home overlooking luscious lagoons and gardens. Designer paint, updated flooring, granite counters in both baths and kitchen, new interior doors, lighting, mouldings, new front loading washer and dryer. Two side by side parking stalls and a storage locker. Pets welcome. These sellers would like their home sold ASAP. All measurements are approximate. OPEN HOUSE Mon, August 6 2:30-4:30 PM.


28 responses to “Desperation Meter – August 2, 2012

  1. David Ho August 2, 2012 at 2:49 pm

    Hey Buddy, Do you know if there is a site other than that has this type of analysis for the Toronto market? I’d be very interested to know as I’ve been seeing a lot of softening housing prices.

  2. donald August 2, 2012 at 3:23 pm

    Should be bonus points for excessive use of CAPITAL LETTERS and use of exclamation marks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Bingo! WOW! Deer Lake!

  3. Red August 2, 2012 at 3:41 pm

    fantastic blog, im glad I found this! Currently looking to move to Delta so that section was extra interesting for me.

  4. bailinginbc August 2, 2012 at 3:56 pm

    I dig the $300 price drop on the first one and only 7 days after the last price drop!

  5. Boomerang August 2, 2012 at 4:57 pm

    Genius!!! Love the new calculations.
    #1 and #2 price drops to only lowering it by 7% is a joke.

  6. YVR Housing Analyst (@YVRHousing) August 2, 2012 at 5:10 pm

    Now this is some interesting stuff, not least because it provides some listings without big price drops that are nonetheless active, indicating they are motivated (but not motivated enough to drop the price LOL).

  7. Numberone Son August 2, 2012 at 6:21 pm

    Great Work!!!

    Curious on if a 1% drop more example gives a desperation score of 4 , why would a 10% drop be just a score of 5? Bigger drop = more desperation assuming prices were “fair value” to start. Would putting a 4% drop a value of 4 or a 8% drop a value of 8 be a better way to finetune this variable?

    • an observer August 2, 2012 at 6:39 pm

      Reasoning is that I believe frequent smaller drops show more desperation since it may indicate that they don’t have much wiggle room vs larger drops which are more often associated with overly greedy initial prices. So, 2×4% drops I believe shows quite a bit more desperation than a single 8% drop.

      I’ll probably change it next time to deal with the current 1%=4 and 10%=5 situation by breaking it down into a couple more groups at the lower end of % drops

    • an observer August 2, 2012 at 6:43 pm

      A good example is the first entry (well, most of the entries actually) where if he had simply gone from $267,500 to $248,000 in one drop then it just shows he probably overpriced. The fact he has dropped his price 10 times for hundreds of dollars at a time tells me he is crying himself to sleep at night 🙂

  8. elme August 3, 2012 at 7:27 am

    Some of my friends who invest huge money in luxury home in west vancouver or vancouver west as their 2nd property for investment are desperate now for a very simple reason, there is no viewer for months. The luxury market is not just cool as this summer, but freezingly cold. The old good days of bid war suddenly become a fairy tale, a scary one…

  9. miu miu August 3, 2012 at 11:43 am

    Great info and analysis.

  10. Nopal August 3, 2012 at 9:15 pm

    HOLY MORTGAGE HELPERS BATMAN!! BINGO!! NEW!! WOW!! EAT/SHOP/PLAY!! I’M LOOOOVING THE NEW MLS® Desperation Price Index (DPI) Composite Benchmark Price !!!!

    schadenfreude anyone?

  11. G August 3, 2012 at 9:19 pm

    A lot of these listings are still above assessment values. It’s prob very difficult to track both listing price and assessment value. But many sellers are “fishing” (esp Richmond). They listed their homes at much higher price than assessment with no intention to really sell them, and slowly drop its price.

    It’s better to track assessment value vs listed price.
    or even better,
    assessment value vs sold price.

    An example would be this: (V940862 was on your July 2012 top West Van)

    Assessed at $2.15 million, (Listed from $2.48 million dropped to $1.99 million)
    Sold at $1.61 million.
    That’s 25% off assessment.

    • an observer August 3, 2012 at 10:09 pm

      People have been getting well above assessment here in Vancouver for at least a decade so I do think that these people were fully expecting to get their initial price or close to it also don’t forget that assessments are a rough estimate. Two homes that have the same lot size, square footage and age on the same street will likely have the same or very similar assessments even though one of them could be far nicer both inside and outside.

      The main issues with tracking assessment is that it is a manual process that has to be done for each listing so I would need to look up assessment values for every listing to run any assessment based report and I don’t have any access to sold listings except in the case of properties sold last year between January and October through the assessment site, also a manual lookup. If people get email alerts for sale prices on listings in any of the reports I’d encourage them to post those in the comments because I agree, the price it sells for is truly the most important piece of information.

      So yes, there could and should be much better reports and more transparent information much like Zillow in the USA but that does not exist in our country so this site tackles one aspect that happens to be public knowledge, the listing price

  12. Loon August 3, 2012 at 9:38 pm

    Amazing work as always. Your site should be awarded best new Van RE blog !

  13. designer69 August 4, 2012 at 8:53 am

    It would be interesting to see the date they bought the properties and for how much as well! Interesting to see how many people are fleeing because they bought at the peak and are now freaking out!

  14. designer69 August 4, 2012 at 2:21 pm

    There is a house in West Vancouver that has made me wonder why it has been on market for so long? I believe on and off for the past 2 or 3 years or more. I know it is grossly overpriced, but might make for some interesting stats for you. 3565 WESTMOUNT RD
    West Vancouver, BC V7V 3G5 mls listing #V915614. It backs on to the upper levels and they are asking 1. 9 million. (1963 box house that looks like they’ve updated it.) It may have sold once during this time.

  15. AG Sage August 4, 2012 at 2:24 pm

    Blogmistress/master, you continue to be a champ of first order.

  16. anon August 7, 2012 at 10:10 am

    Can you multiply your number by (Assessed value/Asking price)? I mean is #2 on your list really desparate to sell when their price is still 1 Million over assessment?

    • an observer August 7, 2012 at 10:21 am

      Assessment is just as estimate and I can’t use that in a calculation because it is a manual process to look up the assessment of each property. The fact of the matter is that higher end homes in West Vancouver have been selling for millions above assessment over the last couple of years while condo’s in the suburbs are routinely listed for 30% below assessment and don’t sell.

      I’d say #2 is very desperate to sell. Sure, their price may not reflect it but perhaps a neighbour with a similar home sold for over $3 million recently or maybe they need a $3.2 million to get their finances back in order. They have had 13 open houses in the last 10 weeks which is incredibly rare for higher end homes, 4 price drops totalling almost $800K and they pulled and relisted at the same price all of which is pretty telling.

  17. Pingback: Desperation Meter – August 9, 2012 « Vancouver Price Drop

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