Vancouver Price Drop

Documenting Vancouver real estate price movements

Recycling Stats – July 31, 2012

Here are the latest stats showing how many new listings are actually recycled listings that had been previously pulled.  The first number for each month shows the number of newly listed properties that are actually recycled and the second number shows what % of “new listings” were actually recycled.  In the spirit of the olympic games I have awarded Gold, Silver and Bronze medals to the top 3 from each month with at least 100 new listings

Overall recycling rates have gone from 17.0% in April to 20.2% in May, 24.6% in June and now 27.5% in July

Region April May June July
West Vancouver 51 21.3% 72 26.1% 73 34.8% 59 35.3%
Chilliwack 12 24.0% 5 12.8% 8 24.2% 8 33.3%
Richmond 177 21.4% 232 27.4% 237 31.4% 204 33.1%
North Vancouver 67 14.2% 93 18.0% 101 24.3% 103 32.4%
Vancouver West 283 21.2% 389 24.8% 377 29.9% 320 31.9%
Maple Ridge 56 20.5% 99 27.1% 86 26.5% 78 31.8%
Burnaby 136 17.7% 162 21.0% 186 25.1% 171 29.4%
Hope and Region 5 12.8% 6 15.8% 2 11.1% 12 27.9%
Langley 69 13.5% 89 16.3% 105 22.0% 116 27.8%
White Rock 79 16.0% 120 22.5% 110 23.3% 123 26.8%
North Surrey 48 12.9% 66 17.1% 69 20.3% 85 26.6%
Port Coquitlam 27 14.7% 37 19.2% 35 19.0% 41 26.6%
Coquitlam 53 12.5% 85 17.2% 97 22.5% 99 25.9%
New Westminster 35 14.0% 54 20.0% 52 21.1% 45 25.9%
Abbotsford 79 17.9% 70 16.0% 93 22.0% 89 25.6%
Tsawwassen 6 9.1% 6 8.7% 9 16.4% 16 25.4%
North Delta 10 9.3% 15 12.5% 19 15.3% 27 25.2%
Port Moody 29 20.9% 38 26.2% 47 29.9% 31 24.6%
Surrey 77 13.6% 84 14.8% 116 21.2% 138 24.4%
Squamish 23 25.6% 11 8.6% 46 32.9% 21 24.4%
Cloverdale 30 12.7% 44 17.5% 53 24.4% 55 23.9%
Mission 31 20.4% 44 21.2% 34 22.1% 35 23.2%
Vancouver East 95 16.3% 140 20.4% 133 21.8% 103 22.3%
Pitt Meadows 13 18.6% 6 10.3% 11 13.8% 12 21.4%
Kent 7 21.2% 6 10.0% 9 33.3% 7 21.2%
Sunshine Coast 24 13.4% 31 12.4% 26 14.6% 32 18.9%
Whistler Pemberton 11 10.1% 13 8.8% 15 12.8% 21 17.5%
Ladner 6 12.0% 6 10.0% 11 18.6% 5 11.4%
TOTAL 1539 17.0% 2023 20.2% 2160 24.6% 2056 27.5%

 

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14 responses to “Recycling Stats – July 31, 2012

  1. gokou3 August 2, 2012 at 12:15 am

    At this rate, it will be interesting to see whether West Van or Richmond first passes Phelps’ medal record. 🙂

  2. delirium tremens August 2, 2012 at 5:24 am

    I’m betting Richmond comes from behind and beats West Van by 1/100th .

  3. Pingback: Vancouver Price Drop:Recycling Stats – July 31, 2012 |

  4. Numberone Son August 2, 2012 at 6:41 pm

    West Vancovuver seems to be the winner !!!!!! 2 Golds, 1 Silver, and 1 Bronze !!! Wow, those wealthy people are really good at winning medals …and overspending on property!!

  5. S August 4, 2012 at 3:38 pm

    Why is it a bad thing if more listings are recycled listings? Doesnt it mean that the total number of listings arent really not that much worse because its not as if more homeowners wanna sell? Thank you for time!!

    • an observer August 5, 2012 at 8:14 am

      It really depends on context I think. Right now a high number of recycled listings combined with very low sales and high inventory probably mean that prices are going to be coming down faster in areas with higher recycle numbers.

      A recycled listing generally means 1) the seller is more likely needing to sell soon and 2) they are probably going to need to drop their price.

      Some of it is very skewed due to realtor practices. In areas like Delta (Ladner, Tsawwassen + North Delta) when a seller needs to lower their price they simply lower their price while in most of the lower mainland the practice seems to be to pull the listing and then relist at a lower price a few days later

  6. Ray August 14, 2012 at 8:32 am

    Squamish silver in June.

  7. Natalie August 22, 2012 at 12:30 pm

    Hi There. What you may not realize is that there has been changes in the real estate industry that concern agency and how we represent clients. All contracts have an expiry date. “Recycling” can occur if the property is expired and then re-listed. This will show up as a “new listing”. Often, we(I am a licensed realtor) will simply extend the contract rather than re-list it. The recent changes in BC regarding agency effect the standard writing in our contracts. Any contract expiring after June 1, 2012 will need to be rewriiten as a new contract inclusive of the Designated Agency wording. This is a mandatory requirement. I believe this will explain the increase in what you are describing as “recycled” listings.

    • an observer August 22, 2012 at 12:52 pm

      Hi Natalie, thanks for the input. This change may have been formalized on June 1 but it has been in common practice to pull and relist after expiry going back at least a few years if not more. Only a tiny % of current listings are older than 6 months with the same MLS number which tells me it had been happening before June. Additionally, if you look at the weekly drops or other listings you will see the same homes with 3, 4 or 5+ MLS numbers in the last 5 months and I’ve seen homes with 3 different MLS numbers in the same month! This practise of pulling and relisting is deceptive unless of course it truly has expired after a reasonable length of time on the market.

      Regardless, what this stat is trying to quantify is how many “new” listings are actually listings that did not sell previously. Maybe a small % of the new recycles would have simply been extended before June 1, 2012 and now are forced to relist but just based on the data that I’ve seen I think the number of listings that are affected by the rule change is negligible

      • Natalie August 22, 2012 at 2:07 pm

        Hi there, it would be so much easier to discuss this in person. I don’t disagree that homes are expired and relisted with different MLS #’s…can you tell me if its the same realtor or a different realtor? To have a listing have 3, 4 or 5 MLS #’s in as many months is very odd as it is a requirement of the MLS that the listing is a minimun 60 day contract. Odd…not impossible. That many times in the same month is really strange. Maybe you can post the MLS numbers and I can check them out and see what`s happening?

        What do you figure a “reasonable length of time” is once a contract expires befrore its relisted? Again, I don’t dispute that people may be doing exactly what you say…but if a seller’s contract expires and they want to relist, why should they have to wait any amount of time?

        All the data you suggest is on our systems and easily accessed by your realtor. Quite honestly, I pay more attention to stats such as the absorption rate to get my opinion of the market. Price drops are important to watch, but there is no saying that a seller has priced their property to reflect current market values from the beginning of the contract, especially in this market.

        I don’t think the recycling of listings is a deceptive practice, but more a marketing strategy some people use to try and gettheir listing noticed again. I have faith in today’s consumers and feel they would recongnize a property that has been listed before while scanning the listings. Then again, I don’t think or act in a deceptive manner so perhaps I’m not understanding something.

        BTW..,thanks for writing this blog. I have just come upon it and look forward to reading more. I don’t mind someone trying to question the integrity of the business….I welcome it. Maybe I can offer the other side on occassion? Either way, I like to hear what people are thinking.

      • an observer August 22, 2012 at 6:11 pm

        Hi Natalie, feel free to offer your viewpoint in the future on this blog, it’s welcomed.

        Here are a few examples of what I was talking about:

        V967038 is on its 5th MLS number since March. The previous MLS number it had, V963983, was only active for 19 days before coming back as this latest one 3 days later

        F1219270 is on its 3rd MLS number in 5 weeks and 4th since mid April

        V965249 is on its 4th MLS number since early June and in each case it relisted for the same price

        F1220405 is on its 4th MLS since the end of May as is F1220253

        There are hundreds of listings with 4 MLS numbers since March. I do not know if the realtor has changed – I would suspect not since if a listing is pulled early I didn’t think it could ne listed by someone else?

        The recycling numbers are mainly interesting because they seem to have a pretty good correlation to weak markets and that makes sense since a high number indicates that many listings, at their current prices, are not selling. Perhaps they could be a leading indicator of future price drops

        Thanks,
        An Observer

  8. Natalie August 22, 2012 at 7:41 pm

    Hey, thanks. I did look them up, and for the most part you are absolutely right. There is one or two cases in those listings where the property has changed listing realtors. Not sure as a realtor why they feel this is a benefit in any way to the seller or even the realtor. Each time we send in a new listing, we are charged again for the processing. I don’t see the logic of it myself, but maybe I’m missing something. I had a client in an extremely slow moving area ask me to do just that…cancel and relist it so it didn’t look like it had been on the market that long. I explained to them that we all have a full computer history and regardless, the information will show the cumulative days the home has been on the market. I would think any prudent realtor will give this information to their buyers.

    To answer your question about being able to list with a different realtor if the contract is terminated early, it actually is possible if the listing brokerage agrees to an unconditional release.

    Again, my personal opinion is more looking at what actually sells rather than what is listed as a better indication of the direction of pricing. The selling price is hard data, the listing price is speculative.

    What I find in my market (and each area is different) is that prices are reflecting back to approximately 2006 values. People that have bought since then are generally not able to turn a profit, and in some cases, won’t break even. Sellers that aren’t in a position where they must sell(job transfer, marriage break down etc) are just holding tight. Buyers are low balling and expecting sellers to cave. Often they won’t as it would mean digging into their pockets to complete the sale. That said, in some price points, we have competing offers that sell for more than asking price.

    You have a keen interest…facinates me that you have invested so much time into this. I think you have me hooked 🙂

    • an observer August 23, 2012 at 10:43 am

      Thanks, that is great info and I agree, selling price is the important metric but unfortunately not something I am able to see. The complete lack of transparency in the real estate industry in Canada is probably the leading cause of frustration some people have towards realtors. We do need something like Zillow in Canada so hopefully in the future things change and that is allowed to happen.

      Your comment about prices going back to 2006 levels is really interesting because the HPI says that prices are up 25% since then in the greater vancouver area! The concept of the HPI is good but unfortunately the data used to calculate it is hidden, obfuscated and inevitably tweaked which further leads to a feeling of mistrust.

      Despite the nature of the site I am actually a home owner (2 actually since I own a vacation home that my family uses very frequently) and am actually looking at selling my home and buying something in a more ideal spot for my family to spend the next 15+ years likely some time next spring.

      I also have a great realtor that I have used a few times now over the past 10 years. He has always been honest and never once made any kind of future prediction in prices (ie prices never go down) other than share the information he has and his own experiences in the area he focuses in and every home we have seen with him he tries to look at critically – finding reasons that the home would not work for us and that is something I really appreciate in a realtor.

      Thanks for the honesty and feedback in your comments

  9. Natalie August 23, 2012 at 11:15 am

    I am so happy to hear your description of your realtor! Far too often, we only hear about bad experiences. Some of us are very committed to doing exactly what we are supposed to do…take care of the best interests of our clients.

    I understand the general frustration with our industry. Seems things are changing in Canada. I have seen changes through the years that have moved towards more transparency, and more is coming.

    I look forward to reading more blog posts from you. 🙂

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