Vancouver Price Drop

Documenting Vancouver real estate price movements

The Weekly Drop – December 3, 2012

Here are the 20 properties that dropped their price the previous week AND have dropped the largest percentage overall from their original asking price.  I’ll be doing the regional spotlights over the next week as well

Some highlights for this week:

  • 37 listings dropped to a cumulative total of 20%+ this week, 17 hit 25% and 10 hit 30% this week (new record, previous record was 9)
  •  Vancouver East makes the list 4 times followed by the Sunshine Coast, Richmond, Maple Ridge and Vancouver West all making the list twice
  • 11  of 17 listings with assessment info are now listed below assessment

#20 ) Address:46109 BRINX RD, Fairfield Island, Chilliwack

h1204605_1

May 25 H1202219 $589,900 $0 0%
June 07 H1202219 $549,900 $-40,000 -7%
July 11 H1202219 $524,900 $-65,000 -11%
August 18 H1202219 $499,000 $-90,900 -15%
October 12 H1202219 $449,000 $-140,900 -24%
November 24 H1202219 removed
November 28 H1204605 $449,000 $-140,900 -24%

Assessment: Farm Land

“Home located outside of the dyke protection.”  “Hippity Hop or this will be gone.”  He’s serious, it could literally be gone soon, gone as in flooded by the Fraser river

Rare and affordable 6.16 acre RSV1 zoned property with a solid 1.5 storey, 1500 sq.ft, 4 bedroom farm home, 36×36 strong and straight hip roof barn with full loft storage, 13×11 workshop and 34×19 carport. Home located outside of the dyke protection. See LB re: new construction restrictions.This full fenced corner acreage offers over 900 ft of frontage offers a pastoral setting with fertile fenced pasture. Plenty of room for horses and a gardeners delight with lots of fruit & nut trees. Lots of options. Quick to town and Fraser fishing. Hippity Hop or this will be gone.


#19 ) Address:24042 102ND AV, Albion, Maple Ridge

V972229_1

April 02 V940621 $678,888 $0 0%
May 16 V940621 $649,888 $-29,000 -4%
Open House: May 20
Open House: Jun 03
Open House: Jun 23
July 05 V940621 $629,888 $-49,000 -7%
Open House: Jul 15
July 19 V940621 $585,000 $-93,888 -14%
Open House: Aug 19
August 23 V940621 removed
September 19 V972229 $530,000 $-148,888 -22%
December 01 V972229 $514,900 $-163,988 -24%

Assessment: $460,000

Still way above assessment so can’t see this selling any time soon given that almost nothing in Maple Ridge is selling near assessment these days

NEED SOME ROOM, PLENTY HERE… Opportunity to own .79 acre (34,412 sq.ft) with a large home plus 28′ x 16′ detached shop w/220V power, 16′ x 10′ shed! Private, paved & gated driveway w/plenty of parking, home set back from the road! Solid3046sq.ft, 6 bedrooms, 3 baths, 2 fireplaces, B/I vac & alarm. Potential in-law suite w/separate entrance. Entertainment sized 30’x12’deck w/newer membrane, roof appr.5yrs.old, newer windows downstairs, updated main bath. Reverse plan with garden view from the livingroom with wall to wall windows! Official Community Plan supports future multi-family development. Close to schools!Minutes to town!


#18 ) Address:# 301 33887 MARSHALL RD, Central Abbotsford, Abbotsford

F1225520_1

June 15 F1215590 $156,900 $0 0%
July 18 F1215590 $152,900 $-4,000 -3%
August 15 F1215590 $148,900 $-8,000 -5%
October 11 F1215590 removed
October 19 F1225520 $139,900 $-17,000 -11%
November 10 F1225520 $129,900 $-27,000 -17%
December 01 F1225520 $118,900 $-38,000 -24%

Assessment: $142,900

No sales here last year and this unit is now listed 17% BELOW assessment

SPACIOUS TOP FLOOR CORNER UNIT!! This 950 sq ft condo is located at the back of the building away from street noise and features an open kitchen living room concept with vaulted ceilings, gas fireplace, and large deck! Great layout with two large bedrooms and 2 full baths. Well maintained building with new roof in 2004, new hallway carpets and more! Parking for 1 car and another spot can be rented from strata for $10 per month if needed. Do not miss this great opportunity, come have a look!


#17 ) Address:# 209 2336 WALL ST, Hastings, Vancouver East

V970352_1

September 09 V970352 $312,000 $0 0%
Open House: Sep 15
Open House: Sep 22
September 28 V970352 $284,500 $-27,500 -9%
Open House: Oct 06
Open House: Nov 03
November 10 V970352 $239,900 $-72,100 -23%
November 28 V970352 $235,000 $-77,000 -25%

Assessment: $300,900

No sales here last year and this unit is currently 22% BELOW assessment.  “Includes prkg” and “Bldg under rental limit”.  Why not spell out parking and building???

Live on WALL Street, a secret oasis on the East side. Friendly neighbours, amazing harbour views, beautiful sunsets. WALL st is one of the nicest streets in the City. Close to North Shore, D/T, shopping, schools, parks, and an outdoor pool. You are 5-10 mins to the city, yet it feels like you are in the quiet suburbs! This ground level home offers a huge 636 sf sunny, peaceful, private & secure patio area to enjoy the outdoors or a BBQ with friends, plus a great place for a pet as this building is pet friendly. This home has been well cared for by long term owners. Building is in good shape w updated pipes and roof and no upcoming assessments. Includes prkg, locker & bike room. Bldg under rental limit.


#16 ) Address:67 W 41ST AV, Cambie, Vancouver West

V967807_1

March 10 V936454 $1,198,000 $0 0%
March 19 V936454 removed
August 24 V967807 $988,800 $-209,200 -17%
November 09 V967807 $938,800 $-259,200 -22%
November 28 V967807 $898,000 $-300,000 -25%

Assessment: $946,900
Last Sale: $840,000 on 21/Jun/2011
Total Profit IF sold for list price: 50,544 transaction costs and 58,000 profit on sale = Profit of 7,456

This flip is looking like it’s going to go bad.  They did seem to get a great deal on this a year ago (great deal is a relative term of course) and after failing to flip for a $300K profit they are now likely going to lose money.  Close to “Queen Elizabeth Theatre” – no, that would be Queen Elizabeth Park, not Queen Elizabeth Theatre which is a 90 minute walk away!  (Thanks HappyCynic for pointing this out)

Excellent investment property located in Cambie Corridor approved by city for high density, potential to assemble houses on the left & right, close to Canada Line, Oakridge Mall & Queen Elizabeth Theatre, no oil tank on the property.


#15 ) Address:90 TIDEWATER WY, Lions Bay, West Vancouver

V906227_1

August 20 V906227 $1,888,000 $0 0%
November 03 V906227 $1,788,000 $-100,000 -5%
April 11 V906227 $1,625,000 $-263,000 -14%
July 27 V906227 $1,498,000 $-390,000 -21%
December 01 V906227 $1,398,000 $-490,000 -26%

Assessment: $1,254,000

Down 26% and still over 10% ABOVE assessment…

This home is absolutely magnificent!! The finest quality home I have ever seen in Lions Bay and every room with ocean views. Outstanding finishes throughout. Top of the line appliances, Sub-Zero fridge, Sub-Zero wine fridge, Wolf range, granite counters. Solid oak hardwood floors, high vaulted ceilings, skylights, new home theatre, lots of glass and natural light, loads of built-ins, stunning ocean views, and just steps down to the beach. The surrounding landscaping is stunning with a custom bridge over the natural pond and a gentle creek winding through the magnificent rock gardens. 2 ocean view decks, new cedar shake roof, energy efficient heat pump system, wood burning fireplace. Only 24 minutes to Downtown Vancouver on the new scenic Sea-To-Sky Highway. This home is for those who truly appreciate the finest workmanship and magnificent natural gardens. Lions Bay, where your weekend get-a-way is the home you live in. Ask for a personal tour of this unique seaside village.


#14 ) Address:# 19 8888 202ND ST, Walnut Grove, Langley

F1113860_1

June 14 F1113860 $189,900 $0 0%
November 17 F1113860 $184,900 $-5,000 -3%
February 04 F1113860 $174,900 $-15,000 -8%
April 27 F1113860 $154,900 $-35,000 -18%
June 06 F1113860 $144,900 $-45,000 -24%
November 30 F1113860 $139,000 $-50,900 -27%

Assessment: $178,300

7 sales here last year averaging 8% ABOVE assessment and this unit is now priced at 22% BELOW assessment.  Seller will pay Basic Service Package membership fee (1 person) for 12 months (approx $397.66, HST included, per month) so essentially another $5K in discounts

Langley Gardens. Top floor 1 bedroom unit with full kitchen and new carpets. A very bright and cheery home with balcony overlooking inner courtyard and garden area. Central Walnut Grove location, provides quick access to shopping and recreation. A secure, pet friendly building (1 small lap pet allowed). A wonderful retirement community where you can choose the service package that best suits your needs. Home supper and meals packages available as well as onsite hair salon. Seller will pay Basic Service Package membership fee (1 person) for 12 months (approx $397.66, HST included, per month).


#13 ) Address:2396 E 45TH AV, Killarney, Vancouver East

V975884-2396-45TH-1

October 13 V915437 $1,168,000 $0 0%
March 16 V915437 $1,198,000 $0 0%
May 31 V915437 $899,800 $-298,200 -25%
October 07 V915437 removed
October 11 V975884 $1,188,000 $-10,000 -1%
November 23 V975884 removed
November 28 V981287 $868,000 $-330,000 -28%

Assessment: $755,400
Last Sale: $801,800 on 08/May/2011
Total Profit IF sold for list price: 48,940 transaction costs and 66,200 profit on sale = Profit of 17,260

Another flip hopefully gone bad.  If they manage to get asking they’ll make a profit but I’m thinking that’s doubtful.  Maybe if they didn’t jack up the price by $370K from what they paid for it and then flipped the price back up $300K after not selling earlier in the year they would have had a nibble – well not likely actually but $1.2 million is just stupid.  People like this deserve to be financially devastated…

Very convenient prime Killarney location, old type 2 levels sold house, 3 bedrooms with high quality, lovely southern backyard in quiet neighborhood. Walking distance to Elementary School, Corpus Christi, Killarney High School & Community Centre, Killarney Market, bank & transit. Priced to sell!


#12 ) Address:933 MCLEAN DR, Grandview, Vancouver East

V981439_1

April 27 V945936 $689,000 $0 0%
May 25 V945936 $649,000 $-40,000 -6%
June 21 V945936 $599,000 $-90,000 -13%
Open House: Jun 24
July 10 V945936 $549,000 $-140,000 -20%
Open House: Jul 15
August 26 V945936 removed
November 29 V981439 $499,000 $-190,000 -28%
Open House: Dec 02

Assessment: $422,000

Its like buying a townhome without the strata fees & party walls! Don’t miss this great opportunity to own a solid character home off “The Drive.” This 3bdrm 2 bath home was tastefully updated (2007) w/ laminate floor, new kitchen complete w/ s/s appliances, wiring, roof, windows & much more. Relax on the oversized, 8’x22′, deck for summer bbq’s or just lounging in the hot tub. Mins to Downtown & Chinatown by car or walk to shops on Commercial Dr, Britannia Community Center/School & transit. This property also has an unfinished bsmt currently used for storage but can be re-modeled to be a mortgage helper. OPEN HOUSE Dec 2, 2-4pm.


#11 ) Address:# 203 1551 MARINER WK, False Creek, Vancouver West

V975770_1

May 21 V951361 $788,000 $0 0%
Open House: Jun 02
Open House: Jun 09
Open House: Jul 01
July 04 V951361 $745,000 $-43,000 -5%
Open House: Jul 07
Open House: Jul 28
July 26 V951361 $699,000 $-89,000 -11%
October 05 V951361 removed
October 09 V975770 $699,000 $-89,000 -11%
Open House: Oct 16
Open House: Oct 21
Open House: Oct 28
October 30 V975770 $638,000 $-150,000 -19%
Open House: Nov 10
Open House: Nov 25
November 29 V975770 $559,000 $-229,000 -29%
Open House: Dec 01

Assessment: $780,000

No sales here last year and this unit is now 27% BELOW assessment.  “Call today to be first to see this incredible opportunity!!” – uhhh, it’s been listed for 7 months, I sure hope you aren’t still waiting for the first person to see this place!

WATERFRONT LIVING ALERT in THE LAGOONS!! Over 1300 sqft with 2 bedrooms and a solarium and 2 decks overlooking the lagoon and marina. Enjoy waterfront living and walks along False Creek to Granville Island and Science World or go a little farther to Stanley Park. This is a great retirement spot. Bring your ideas as this suite is mostly original, with new carpets and paint and the potential is unbelievable. Call today to be first to see this incredible opportunity!! All measurements approximate.


#10 ) Address:# TH6 8160 LANSDOWNE RD, Brighouse, Richmond

V974895_1

March 24 V939119 $788,000 $0 0%
April 05 V939119 $686,000 $-102,000 -13%
Open House: May 20
Open House: May 26
June 06 V939119 $598,000 $-190,000 -24%
Open House: Jun 17
June 25 V939119 removed
August 10 V965739 $659,000 $-129,000 -16%
Open House: Aug 11
Open House: Aug 12
Open House: Aug 18
Open House: Aug 19
October 02 V965739 removed
October 04 V974895 $588,000 $-200,000 -25%
November 02 V974895 $568,000 $-220,000 -28%
November 27 V974895 $555,000 $-233,000 -30%

Assessment: $603,000

9 sales here last year for an average of 3% ABOVE assessment and this unit is currently 8% BELOW assessment.  Nice try on the flip flop back in August – just wasted time and wasted opportunities

Located in Central Richmond, steps to skytrain, Lansdowne Mall, Kwantlen University. This building offers: concierge service, 2 guest suites, pool table & games room, exercise center & steam room & sauna. Located within easy distance to skytrain, shopping & restaurants. Beautiful front patio with trees, flowers & plants. Recent renovation on flooring & bathrooms. Perfect condition & ready for quick possession.


#9) Address:21694 HOWISON AV, West Central, Maple Ridge

No Picture

May 21 V951457 $449,900 $0 0%
October 01 V951457 removed
November 30 V981592 $315,900 $-134,000 -30%

Assessment: $410,000

” This home needs LOTS of work.”

West side cul-de-sac location on 60×132 lot = 7920 sq. ft. with fenced back yard. Split entry with 3 bay garage. This home needs LOTS of work. Ideal for a handyman/contractor or rebuild. Measurements are approx. and should be verified by the Buyers if important to them.


#8 ) Address:# 112 1202 LONDON ST, West End, New Westminster

V981393_1

April 26 V945836 $264,500 $0 0%
April 26 V945836 removed
May 04 V947664 $228,000 $-36,500 -14%
Open House: May 19
Open House: Jun 02
Open House: Jun 16
June 29 V947664 $217,000 $-47,500 -18%
August 03 V947664 removed
August 16 V966616 $217,000 $-47,500 -18%
Open House: Aug 19
September 22 V966616 $209,000 $-55,500 -21%
Open House: Sep 30
November 02 V966616 $198,500 $-66,000 -25%
Open House: Nov 03
November 26 V966616 removed
November 29 V981393 $185,000 $-79,500 -30%
Open House: Dec 02

Assessment: $200,400

2 sales here last year averaging 4% ABOVE assessment and this unit is currently 8% BELOW assessment

Spacious completely renovated 2-bedroom condo in popular central location. Very quiet, all windows overlooking green space.Shows beautifully: new kitchen, bathroom, flooring. Excellent floor plan, feels much larger than actual squarefootage. Large living/dining rooms combo separates the bedrooms, handy en-suite storage/den and oversized balcony. Conveniently located within walking distance to schools, shopping & transit. Parking stall and storage locker are included.


#7 ) Address:# PH5 868 KINGSWAY, Fraser, Vancouver East

No Picture

April 09 V941959 $428,000 $0 0%
July 26 V941959 $382,000 $-46,000 -11%
November 28 V941959 $298,000 $-130,000 -30%

Assessment: $318,000

1 sale here last year for 14% ABOVE assessment and this unit is now listed at 6% BELOW assessment.  Greed cost them a bundle with their initial price at close to 40% ABOVE assessment.  They have finally come in below assessment but probably too late

Penthouse corner unit with great layout and mountain views. Recently renovated with new paint & granite throughout kitchen and bathrooms. Open kitchen with breakfast bar, opens out to the living/dining room. Vaulted ceilings, gas fireplace & 2 balconies. Insuite laundry. All in a centrally located rainscreened building. This 2-bedroom/2-bath is good value now and in the future.


#6 ) Address:# 337 19528 FRASER HY, Cloverdale BC, Cloverdale

F1224295_1

August 16 F1220860 $239,000 $0 0%
September 10 F1220860 removed
October 05 F1224295 $174,900 $-64,100 -27%
October 28 F1224295 $170,000 $-69,000 -29%
November 30 F1224295 $165,000 $-74,000 -31%

Assessment: $174,000

4 sales in this last year averaging 1% ABOVE assessment and this unit is currently priced at 5% BELOW assessment.   Another unit initially priced almost 40% ABOVE assessment

Your new home at “The Fairmont ” – View this Clean, Large 1 Bedroom and Den (could be a 2 Bedroom), 850 sq.ft., on the Top Floor, facing north, with 2 parking spots . Other features include high ceilings, gas fireplace, private deck, and deep soaker tub. This building is in a quiet location, with great amenities (guest suite, fitness room, sauna, club house). Steps to Willowbrook Mall, Restaurants, Buses. Easy to Show.


#5 ) Address:9571 NO 4 RD, Saunders, Richmond

V959259_1

August 04 V959259 $591,600 $0 0%
August 08 V959259 $558,000 $-33,600 -6%
September 09 V959259 $519,888 $-71,712 -12%
September 22 V959259 $498,800 $-92,800 -16%
October 04 V959259 $488,000 $-103,600 -18%
October 23 V959259 $448,000 $-143,600 -24%
November 10 V959259 $428,000 $-163,600 -28%
November 14 V959259 $408,000 $-183,600 -31%
November 28 V959259 $398,000 $-193,600 -33%

Assessment: $486,300

That’s definitely one of the worst opening pictures for a property I have ever seen.  They would be better off showing a close up of the kitchen sink

LIVE in it, RENT it out, HOLD it for future development !! This half duplex has huge potential to be part of a multiple family land assembly, but is priced affordably. 3 BR + 1.5 bathroom and substantially renovated. Single Garage. Large Western exposed lot, near to schools, parks, and transportation routes. Interior, carpets and paint, HW tank, and lighting updated. Roof done 2002. Please allow notice to show. All measurements approximate and to be confirmed by Buyer. See MLS#V956594


#4 ) Address:22301 ROSS RD, Hope Center, Hope and Region

h1204610_1

February 22 H1200719 $239,900 $0 0%
April 25 H1200719 $224,900 $-15,000 -6%
August 31 H1200719 removed
November 29 H1204610 $159,900 $-80,000 -33%

Assessment: $272,000

” a 3500sqft structure has been started” – seen a few of these started and stopped projects lately.  This property is now over 40% BELOW assessment

Nice 2.8acre hillside property located near the Trans Canada Highway. The value is in the land only, but a 3500sqft structure has been started. This is a great chance to build your dream home on a private acreage. Only 5 minutes from town.


#3 ) Address:# LOT 7 BEAUMONT RD, Sechelt, Sunshine Coast

V953257_1

May 30 V953257 $225,000 $0 0%
August 08 V953257 $189,000 $-36,000 -16%
December 01 V953257 $149,000 $-76,000 -34%

Assessment: No Assessment

I love the ‘Affordable’ in quotes!!!  It’s almost like they get that they are being ironic!

Rare Hotel Lake waterfront lot with over 100 feet of lakefront and over 4/10ths Acre. Beautiful south facing, well treed property, tucked into a quiet bay. Don’t miss this ‘Affordable’ opportunity for family fun at your own lakefront property – ideal for a cottage or permanent home.


#2 ) Address:# LOT 36 BONNIEBROOK HEIGHTS RD, Gibsons, Sunshine Coast

V981325_1

March 09 V718261 $299,500 $0 0%
May 01 V718261 removed
November 28 V981325 $179,500 $-120,000 -40%

Assessment: No Assessment

Holy reality check!  40% drop in one shot – don’t see that very often

Gorgeous panoramic ocean view lot. Driveway & culvert in place, septic approved, cleared & ready to build on. Close to great beach. Come view the view & picture the lifestyle possibilities for a home on this unique & rare lot offering. SUBSTANTIAL PRICE REDUCTION


#1 ) Address:32921 14TH AV, Mission BC, Mission

F1228011_1

December 04 F1128776 $1,450,000 $0 0%
April 16 F1128776 $1,000,000 $-450,000 -31%
October 26 F1128776 $880,000 $-570,000 -39%
November 26 F1128776 removed
November 28 F1228011 $799,000 $-651,000 -45%

Assessment: $442,000

Sorry, not many builders left that are willing to finance a 23 townhome development in Mission.  This one could easily drop 70-80%

1.47 acre property in central Mission. Approved for 23 townhomes. Complete with drawings, geotech, engineering and site plans. Present zone R558. New zone Mt40. Has had all approvals and district will sign off upon receipt of development fees.

45 responses to “The Weekly Drop – December 3, 2012

  1. happy cynic December 4, 2012 at 10:13 am

    #16- 67 W. 41st. in Vancouver. “Close to Queen Elizabeth Theatre”. Really?
    Lazy agent.
    Thanks again for providing these. A fresh alternative to the “Sold for Over Asking” properties detailed in the Saturday Sun Homes section.

  2. VultureBoy December 4, 2012 at 10:20 am

    I always start by reading the red comments 🙂

  3. Disowned Renter December 4, 2012 at 11:00 am

    Update for the burnaby price drop.

    6135 Dufferin (exorcist house) sold for $740,000, originally listed at $1,165,000, assessed at $863,300.

    Sold for 63.5% of original list price, 85.7% of assessed value.

  4. Roy December 4, 2012 at 11:43 am

    #4- Is that a house or a barn?
    #5- LOL
    #10- Looks like a classic greed choke on the way down. Brought their crazy price down in line with assessment, probably got a $570’s offer in June or July, rejected it thinking they could get more, and now done. Owner slices own throat with greed.

  5. Real Estate Tsunami December 4, 2012 at 12:04 pm

    Anyone know how the RE is on the Sunshine Coast is doing?
    I guess there most be some antsy home owners, after the earthquake.

  6. JR December 4, 2012 at 12:30 pm

    #19 This is going to be an epicenter of destruction. Practically every large property on this road with a teardown is for sale. Up the street by Kanaka creek a very large piece of land has been prepped for development. Every new development off this road is mostly unsold.

    The link below is to one of them. There are probably at least 50 homes in this very tight development and I believe only a few are sold, the rest are unfinished. I’m under the impression based on the pace of the work they are in severe severe finance trouble, and are only able to proceed as they sell a unit. This particular one was just listed for $500k a week ago. My guess is this development will be taken over by the bank.

    http://www.mindymcpherson.com/Properties.php/Details/1123/10340-240th-st-maple-ridge-bc#viewdetail

    I don’t have time to look on the MLS, but I would not be surprised if there are 500 homes/properties for sale within a 5km radius of the above property.

    I posted this comment on VCI and I think a many people had a tough time digesting it. I don’t want this to be confused with me saying the crash wasn’t going happen or that the loose credit standards weren’t the root cause of the bubble; I’m just saying this is what caused the actual crash. The US crash occurred because there were too many homes/condos being built towards the top, and too many went online at once. Inventory didn’t go up because prices were too high with a lack of buyers forcing prices down; Prices went down quickly because there was too much coming online at once then could be consumed for any price point. It was a race to the top. At some point the question becomes “just who are they building these for?”. This is what is happening in Maple Ridge. We have just gone over the top and there is more for sale than could possibly be consumed.

    • MP December 4, 2012 at 1:29 pm

      No wonder they can’t sell that place.

      Lot Frontage 10.74 ft
      Lot Depth 30 ft

      I think Mindy messed up her units of measure…?

    • bullwhip29 December 5, 2012 at 12:30 pm

      @ JR
      I believe the # of DETACHED homes alone is approaching 600 for all of Maple Ridge. Add to this another 200 or so t/h’s and/or apts. To compare, there are roughly 900 detached homes on the market in Richmond (which has approx 3x the population of MR)

      FWIW, a co-worker of mine bought a brand spanking new place in Silver Valley about 3 years ago (in fact, a virtual carbon copy of the ones on Mindy’s site). I still remember the housewarming like it was yesterday. Anyway, to put it mildly, they are disappointed with their new digs as all sorts of issues have already popped up. These include poor insulation, squeaky floors, noisy plumbing, cracked pavement on driveway and other issues due to “settling”. To add insult to injury, tons of new places with more bells and whistles are currently selling at $50-100k discounts from what they bought their place for. When signs of this started to pop up in the US, people simply stopped making payments and/or abandoned their homes altogether. This is clearly not an option for the vast majority of Cdn homeowners, who have no choice now but to sell what they can, hunker down and deal with the pain and constant bleeding for as long as possible. I think this is going to be a long and drawn out affair that won’t end well for many.

      • JR December 5, 2012 at 2:03 pm

        “I believe the # of DETACHED homes alone is approaching 600 for all of Maple Ridge. Add to this another 200 or so t/h’s and/or apts. To compare, there are roughly 900 detached homes on the market in Richmond (which has approx 3x the population of MR)”

        I have not toured all of Maple Ridge but I know there must be at least 100, maybe 200 or more, that should be hitting the market here by spring. That is if the developers even complete them. The large development at Kanaka Creek must be around 400 units completed, but they are just building a model/show home at the moment. I’ll be surprised if they get past that.

        @bullwhip29 you obviously get my point. Who is in the hell is going to buy all these homes? In the US things fell apart starting in the periphery: Outlying suburbs (Maple Ridge), vacation destinations(Shuswap, Canmore, even Whistler). Those counties/townships get blacklisted by the banks, whether a primary ownership or a vacation/investment, those owners get a bag of hurt, and it’s just downhill from there. I expect Maple Ridge will be blacklisted by Spring; no bank will touch a loan there or require an impossible down payment.

      • bullwhip29 December 5, 2012 at 2:40 pm

        @ JR

        Kanaka Cr sounds like another Bear Mountain. I doubt the developers simply dump the whole works onto the market come spring time. There only logical play is to dupe any remaining prospective buyers into believing this is the next up and coming neighborhood, that only a limited number of homes will be made available at “insider” prices and that maybe one day the powers that be will cough up a few more billion to extend either the Expo or Millenium Line into Maple Ridge (thereby tripling the value of your home in the process).

      • JR December 5, 2012 at 3:54 pm

        @bullwhip29 Well I have a friend who worked for Bear Mountain development company, won’t say what he did other then he did intimately know their finances, and they were cooking the books trying to get more financing. But I’m sure they are the only ones who have done this.

        Again I’m under the distinct impression with regards to the listing I posted above that this developer is in series trouble. These homes have been sitting unfinished maybe since the spring. I don’t think they have the cash to pay their subcontractors and are bootstrapping off each sale. Just down the street there is an completed Onni project that is mostly unsold.

      • Real Estate Tsunami December 5, 2012 at 4:44 pm

        JR,
        I think ONNI is in trouble. They just cancelled a development at the North Shore.
        In Steveston, they are renting rather than selling the Imperial Landing project.

      • bullwhip29 December 5, 2012 at 4:50 pm

        @ JR
        The answer to your question, “Who in the hell is going to buy all these homes?” is anyone with a pulse willing to sign on the dotted line and do whatever it takes to get approved for financing.

        My sister is a mortgage underwriter for one of the big 5. She recently told me that at least one out of two (possibly 2 out of 3) applications submitted to her from mortgage brokers is borderline fraudulent. People at all levels of the food chain are desperate to close deals now. People aren’t getting paid, jobs are on the line. Yes, it appears that almost all the sand has fallen through the hour glass now. Developers have but one option remaining now and that is to shovel out as much product as possible over the next 6-12 months to anyone and everyone using whatever means possible. ie.offers of all kinds of free stuff, questionable financing arrangements and whatever other convoluted schemes they can dream up. As always, whoever gets the early jump on the competition will likely get seats on one of the life rafts and will survive to play another day. Many others won’t be so fortunate.

      • JR December 5, 2012 at 5:10 pm

        @RE Tsunami You might be right, either that or they are getting as much skin out of the game as they can. They have a project in Pitt Meadows I’m curious about as well.

        Another thing that happened in the US when the market turned was that condo projects were rented for two years with the intension of refurbishing them to sell. Many developers found themselves underwater and the only way they could avoid being wiped out was taking rental income. This would also expire the warrantee so the developer would be off the hook.

      • overthepond December 6, 2012 at 10:03 am

        Re: Maple Ridge, I’m with you on this one. Just from personally following a few listings, about half the houses I’ve had half an interest in have had expired listings, and have not been relisted to MLS. Spring will see a pretty large surge in listings, and could see some very voltile price setting as well, if sellers start to try and match/undercut the opposition.

  7. bopeep December 4, 2012 at 3:02 pm

    While I appreciate your hard work dissecting the profit/loss from these flips gone bad, you are missing one key element of the equation – carrying costs. You must factor in the monthly cost of carrying the property 1) mortgage interest 2) property tax and water cost 3) lost interest for downpayment 3) cost of repairs. Over the course of 1 year, this is no small potatoes

    • an observer December 4, 2012 at 3:57 pm

      I’m just looking at transactional costs related to the buying and selling for the comparison otherwise you have to also facor in principal paid down, rent costs for similar property etc. I agree that the costs could be higher but too many unknowns to be able to effectively quantify these things

      • bopeep December 4, 2012 at 5:38 pm

        3411 Springfield Drive in Richmond just dropped to $139,900 – a drop of 48% from original asking/assessment price? No??

      • an observer December 5, 2012 at 12:47 pm

        Yeah, currently in #1 spot for next weeks weekly drop

      • Devore December 7, 2012 at 9:05 am

        Principal paydown is irrelevant (actually, it is a slight cost, due to opportunity cost), and rental equivalent does not apply, unless the person lives there. Are not most flips renovations?

        I agree to just stick to RE transaction costs (plus maybe PTT?), otherwise too many assumptions and situational scenarios.

      • an observer December 7, 2012 at 9:43 am

        PTT is currently included in the calculation along with a total $4K in various fees for the buy and sell transactions (legal, inspection, misc etc) and standard realtor fees make up the bulk of it

  8. bullwhip29 December 4, 2012 at 3:29 pm

    Re #16
    It never ceases to amaze me how many folks get suckered into buying these so called bargain priced “westside” homes on 41st Ave (ie. the ones up on the ledge straddling the border between East and West). Perhaps they are relatively inexpensive for a reason? Maybe no one wants to buy a home that can’t be accessed from the front? Maybe the average person doesn’t find the 20 ft concrete slab particularly appealing? Maybe some don’t like the buses roaring by every few minutes? Maybe the typical human is not able (or is too lazy) to walk to the mall or Cda line, let alone the QE Theatre? Who knows?

    This home is more of a distressed Eastside address than one which the realtor claims is within the Cambie corridor (well, news flash. it isn’t) Anyhow, the Cda Line has already been built. Anyone who owned strategically located parcels of land already made their windfall profits. I suppose it would have been nice to know rapid transit was coming to Cambie St 10 years ago now, wouldn’t it? Anyway, the book closed on this area play a long while ago. You’d be better off trying to pickup a crack shack on W. 8th or 10th Ave (pick your spot on the monopoly board) in the hope that something similar happens on Broadway.

  9. RFM December 4, 2012 at 4:14 pm

    The REBGV ‘Realtor Hunger Index’ for November 2012 was 74%.

    This is the percent of realtors who went ‘hungry’ (‘earned’ no commission income) for the month using a simplistic formula: start with the total reported sales from the REBGV Monthly Statistical Report; assume 5% of sales were ‘double ended’ (one realtor kept the entire commission by ‘representing’ both buyer and seller), add to the number of ‘double ended’ commissions the number of split commissions (reduced by an assumed 15% ‘earned’ by realtors who handled multiple sales), divide the resulting number of commissions by the total number of realtors and subtract that fraction from 1 to yield the percent of realtors not ‘earning’ commissions.

    For comparison, historical figures using the same methodology are below (the REBGV website (http://www.rebgv.org/about-rebgv) does not reveal the exact number of realtors at any particular time; based on my research, I used 11,000 for 2011 and 2012; 10,000 for 2010, 9,400 for 2009, 9,500 for 2008, 9,000 for 2007, 8,200 for 2006 and 7,800 for 2005):

    Month…..2008…..2009…..2010…..2011…..2012
    Jan……….68%……87%……68%…..72%……76%
    Feb………53%……74%……59%…..53%……61%
    Mar………47%……60%…..48 %….38%……56%
    Apr………44%……48%……42%…..51%……58%
    May……..47%……38%……47%…..49%……57%
    Jun……….57%……25%…..51%……51%……64%
    Jul………..62%……27%……62%…..61%……68%
    Aug………73%……39%…..63%……64%……75%
    Sep………72%……37%……63%……66%……77%
    Oct………76%……34%……61%……65%……71%
    Nov……..85%……45%……58%……64%……74%
    Dec………84%……55%……68%…..75%……

    • Real Estate Tsunami December 4, 2012 at 6:17 pm

      RFM,
      Great analysis.
      Intuitively, these numbers make sense. Low in spring and higher in autumn, winter.
      The numbers for the second half of 2012 look similar to the second half of 2008.
      Thanks for the effort.

    • Brian December 4, 2012 at 8:15 pm

      Oh no, how are they going to service that debt on their Mercedes C class? Or their Audi A4s?

    • Seeking knowledge... December 4, 2012 at 9:38 pm

      Good data for trending. You should post it every month.

      • RFM December 5, 2012 at 9:44 am

        I intend to post this every month, immediately after the REBGV announces the monthly sales figures. Next month, the chart will include 2005-2012. As with all of Observer’s postings, this requires a lot of manual number crunching.

    • Ray December 5, 2012 at 8:16 pm

      Is 2012 the only year for which over half the realtors went hungry for the entire year?

  10. Rololo December 4, 2012 at 10:05 pm

    Re: #20- I saved a screen shot of the original MLS in case they re-listed it, and I just looked at the original description. No mention of the “new construction restrictions” or location outside dyke protection under the original ad. I get that realtors don’t want negative info in a description, but that seems like really important info.

  11. spitfire December 5, 2012 at 5:59 pm

    Currently renting top of a house with nice backyard, garden, big kitchen, garage, etc, in New Westminster and am paying way less than the mortgage carrying costs on that NW ‘condo’.

    Prices have GOT to come down in order to make owning even close to realistic.

  12. vreaa December 6, 2012 at 10:12 am

    Thanks for all the work, observer. Much appreciated.

  13. ianmacke7 December 6, 2012 at 1:47 pm

    I spoke to a real estate developer friend about the potential for a Vancouver housing crash back in late September, he didn’t seem to worried about it but I imagine he is worrying now. The last 3-4 weeks especially have been very concerning for anyone with investment dollars in the real estate market.

    • an observer December 6, 2012 at 1:58 pm

      Writing has been on the wall for a while now – we’ve had the first or second worst sales of every month in over a decade and inventory near or above decade highs the entire time. I believe we’re also going to have the worst yearly sales # in a long time.

      I guess you never truly know but there is a very good chance that 2013 is going to be a horrible year in real estate and the economy here in general

  14. Seeking knowledge... December 7, 2012 at 1:44 pm

    If we want to accelerate the RE correction process, I think all we have to do is spread the word around about this website to main stream media. People in general, for some reason, believe the TV news and the mainstream newspaper above anything else. Using the cliche, “In God we trust. Everybody else, give me data.” The data in this site is irrefutable.

    • bullwhip29 December 7, 2012 at 3:48 pm

      Good luck with that. The local MSM is bought and paid for by the RE industry and the banks. Over the coming months, I imagine you’ll hear never ending stories about home prices bottoming, that it’s a buyer’s market (so go out and BUY!), that the current market weakness won’t last and that this may be the final opportunity to get in before prices resume their never ending surge upwards leaving many priced out of this market forever. If, however, things were to get really ugly, the MSM will go completely silent on the subject and not tell anyone what’s really going on. Instead they’ll ramp up their coverage of Justin Bieber, Honey Boo Boo and other subjects of greater importance. You know, the standard BS you’d expect from any reputable news outlet in today’s world.

    • moloko December 11, 2012 at 10:56 pm

      totally agree, get this website out to the masses!

  15. RFM December 7, 2012 at 9:14 pm

    Attention shoppers:
    According to information just posted on the VCI blog, #7 on the 9 November West Vancouver Spotlight just sold for $2,500,000; Assessment at $3,412,000; last sale in 2009 at $2,950,000; was listed in January for $4,200,000.
    From looking at the photos, it appears someone got a really nice house for a good price.
    Happy Holidays!

    • an observer December 7, 2012 at 9:27 pm

      Wow, $2.5 million is actually pretty amazing for that home in that area at this point in time…

      So here is where it gets interesting… According to the HPI, West Vancouver is up 25% in 3 years meaning this home should be worth $3.7 million and it sold for $2.5 million.

      Based on my understanding of how the HPI works, this should go in the books as roughly a 30%+ drop this year in the HPI for this sale.

  16. Nelson December 10, 2012 at 7:52 am

    Vancouver seems to be feeling the affects of reality. Many Chinese investors are leaving and no longer purchasing homes to inflate the pyramid scheme.
    My brother is in the new housing build in Winnipeg and he has noticed alot of Chinese buyers of new homes, paying cash and renting them out…are they shifting their investments to other parts of Canada?

  17. Pete April 17, 2013 at 2:55 am

    House #12, the 1 at 933 McLean Drive in Vancouver, was removed earlier this year but has now been re-listed (MLS V1001687), for $539,000. I don’t know if it had been sold but the description is exactly the same.

    • Harry May 4, 2013 at 8:26 pm

      there is something strange with #12 , it has either sold 4 times in the last year or less ,or just removed and relisted each time , the last time it was $499,000 . It is either the diesel fumes one would experience twice daily from the 50 School Bus Yard behind it , something regarding the empty lot next door , or the house next door which resembles a halfway or recovery house or the like .

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