Vancouver Price Drop

Documenting Vancouver real estate price movements

Drop from Peak Chart – June 2013

Here is an updated chart showing the pace of the Lower Mainland’s detached home price drop from peak compared to other regions.   In this chart I have combined the data from Vancouver West, Vancouver East, North Vancouver, West Vancouver, Richmond and Burnaby.  HPI data is being grabbed from MLS HPI

I figured I would post the June graph and then next week when the July numbers come out I will post again.  June was up from 95.00 in May (100.0 being the peak) to 95.03.  A slight increase but that makes it 5 straight months and it’s true that no other comparison city had 5 straight months of increases at this point.  Boston had 5 straight during year 2 of their drop and many had 5 straight up months in year 3 before continued drops.  I do doubt the HPI numbers for single family homes – they are not jiving with the teranet numbers and the sale prices that I am seeing on repeat sale homes aren’t reflecting this either although of course my sample is very small.

Compared to the US city sample Vancouver is now 10th out of 15 in terms of the total amount dropped from peak after 13 months.  The average US city dropped 11.6% in months 14 through 19 but we’ll have to wait and see what happens here.

 

Click to Enlarge

graph

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30 responses to “Drop from Peak Chart – June 2013

  1. Ray August 3, 2013 at 4:10 pm

    It’s going to be a bloodbath. All Vancouver Realtors should be required to wear Red Star Trek uniforms.

  2. ken August 4, 2013 at 11:13 am

    Correction is coming and it is going to get nasty.

  3. Mike August 4, 2013 at 1:55 pm

    Foreigners in vancouver are ready for homes in vancouver, born and brought up Vancouverites are ready for container homes…. Google “container homes vancouver BC”… Good luck future generation…

    • Elme August 6, 2013 at 12:10 pm

      Hasn’t the competition gone globally for several decades? People still blame FOREIGNERS? If one thinks our children can only be sheltered by isolating them from the world, you either disrespect yourself or your children.

      • Mike August 9, 2013 at 4:20 am

        What are you talking about….just google the vancouver container homes. And which global competition – between global millionaires who have cheap laor working in their factories VS middle class locals….

  4. father August 4, 2013 at 3:02 pm

    bull shit, bull shit, bull shit. less than 10% foreign buying and all these jackass realturds deceiving our fellow canadians into hardship we are taxed heavily, everday essentials are high and house prices are going up or staying at these levels I DON’T THINK SO PERIOD. I run a HONEST successful recession proof business and am well off and would tell each and every friend, neighbor and fellow canadian not to buy because we are headed for a crash maybe not today but all the warning signs are here so to my fellow canadian’s change your mind sets renting is not bad mouldy basements my ass, I rent a 1650 sf basement for 1400 everything included even though I can buy a house for cash any day so I wish you my fellow canadians to not be ashamed of renting and saving your hard earned money. invest it save it remember at the the end of this game cash is king ENJOY YOUR FINANCIAL FREEDOM.

    • Elme August 6, 2013 at 12:08 am

      If living in a basement make you feel a FINANCIAL FREEDOM, most people will have their freedom by simply lowering their living standard.

      • father August 6, 2013 at 9:04 am

        you must not have financial freedom

      • Huh? August 6, 2013 at 6:38 pm

        living in a basement gives you freedom? Huh? it sounds like you probably care more about living in a desirable area where prices are higher, than compromising and owning in an area that is affordable. that’s totally fine, but at least realize the reality.

        My wife and I make a middling income of some 120K a year, just renewed our 4 year term a few months ago on a place we bought back in 2009. We have some 30% of the principal paid off and now our mortgage payment is far less than the rental equivalent. We’ll be mortgage free in our late 30s.

        Do we live in Kits? Nope. But we do live in a beautiful green-belt townhouse in Port Moody and both have short commutes to Burnaby.

        to each his own

  5. Yellow Helicopter August 4, 2013 at 10:18 pm

    Great to see you back Observer, thanks for continuing to update! Will be very interesting to see what happens over the next 6 months on.

  6. Anonymous Fan August 6, 2013 at 2:32 pm

    This might have an impact:
    http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/story/2013/08/06/business-mortgage-banks.html
    The move takes some of the air out of the housing market by forcing banks and other lenders to be responsible for the risk of mortgage defaults, instead of being able to pass that risk on to government and taxpayers via the CMHC.

  7. bullwhip29 August 7, 2013 at 10:33 am

    observer, welcome back. You picked a great time to take a break as the second half of 2013 should be more eventful. As i mentioned in previous posts, the price graph for Vanc may not trace out in the same fashion (and on same time scale) as compared to the various US cities you have outlined due to a number of external factors beyond our control, so do not be alarmed by the brief upturn we have be witnessing in recent months. At the end of the day, we’ll all wind up at the same destination regardless of whether or not the water is choppy and/or we have the wind at our backs (like we’ve had for the last 5 yrs). IMHO, a perfect storm for Vanc RE bulls may be unfolding as we speak with the Fed considering its exit plan, Asian markets and commodity prices in freefall, interest rates on the rise and the CMHC ratcheting down its guarantees on MBS. The fact that many think the Cdn housing market has bottomed once again (after another small correction) and is in the process of ramping back up is extremely concerning to me and makes me wonder if that so called hard landing scenario for Cdn RE is really that far fetched after all. Hey, if anyone out there is willing to present a compelling argument to suggest that all the good news is not baked into the cake already, I’m all ears.

  8. Seeking knowledge... August 8, 2013 at 1:11 pm

    Hi Observer. One of your previous posts, 2656 W 41ST AV, has just been sold. Here’s the link: http://www.martyhomes.com/our-listings/2656-w-41st-avenue-vancouver-bc-v6n-3c4/

  9. José August 11, 2013 at 3:11 pm

    Hurry back an observer, I miss you!

  10. L August 18, 2013 at 10:55 am

    Face it, time to close out this blog. The Price Drop is over. Housing is on the rise…

  11. Elme August 18, 2013 at 11:37 am

    Would like to see how July chart will be plotted.

  12. Doug Finnamore August 19, 2013 at 6:03 am

    I follow Garth Turners Greater Fool blog, and he has pointed out the the MLS HPI is actually a franken number created by using running averages to make the house prices look higher than they really are. It would be interesting to see your chart based on actual average selling prices. I suspect the line for Vancouver would be sitting a bit lower on the chart than it is.

  13. Real Estate Tsunami August 21, 2013 at 12:57 pm

    RBC just hiked their rates, again.
    An Observer, time to fire up the blog again.
    I believe the price drops will come in fast and furious this fall.

  14. Horizons August 27, 2013 at 7:19 pm

    Yoo hooo…anybody here?

  15. Roy September 5, 2013 at 2:23 pm

    I suspect the Vancouver market is one heck of a roller coaster, even compared to the others. That black line looks to be in a very precipitous position. Next 2 years will be telling.

  16. José September 5, 2013 at 8:01 pm

    I see another bearish Vancouver Real Estate blog (not this one) has called it quits. At least they were honest enough to admit that this market isn’t quite dead yet – as irrational as it is.

  17. Finally September 10, 2013 at 7:02 am

    I’m sure once the market begins to fall, all the bearish blogs will return. Looking forward to that day.

  18. Randy February 6, 2014 at 9:00 pm

    It’s 2014. Where is your updated chart? Did the raw data stop reflecting your cause? It seems to have mysteriously disappeared right about the time the rally commenced. Please advise.

    • an observer February 7, 2014 at 9:33 am

      lol, my cause!?! The chart stopped around the same time I stopped updating the weekly drop. Now I’ve been doing the weekly drop again for a little over a week so have some patience!

      The HPI is obviously a manipulated number (primarily with SFH’s) that doesn’t account for the fact that homes are being upgraded and improved. Take a $1 million home that is in “TLC” shape and spend $200K on a renovation and sell the home for $1.2 million. The HPI hit for that home is +20% when in reality it should be a 0% increase since the entire increase was sunk in improvement costs. With condo’s this is less of an issue because other than new appliances every 10 years there aren’t a whole lot of possible meaningful upgrades.

      Richmond is apparently up 0.4% over 3 years – this is laughable.

      All that being said, the chart will return.

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